This all adds to up to a chipping away at PayPal’s mobile payments dominance.
In addition, Square-whose users’ payment frequency is roughly the same as PayPal’s -is rapidly growing both its user base and merchant network. As that activity increases, online payment activity will shift from PayPal to the merchants’ apps. In any given week, Americans have roughly $3.2 billion sitting in 10 of the leading merchants’ mobile apps. Three-quarters of consumers with a smartphone have at least one merchant’s mobile app installed on their device.
In-Network Payments Will Erode PayPal’s Payment Volume It seems very unlikely that PayPal will open its digital wallet to its BNPL competitors. PayPal’s competitors’ share is likely to continue to grow as they continue to build out a strong presence in the US-but also because consumers can use their services within the Apple Pay and Google Pay apps. Buy Now, Pay Later Use is Exploding in the USĪlthough PayPal’s BillMeLater service was one of the first (if not the first) digital buy now, pay later (BNPL) service available in the US, newer entrants like Affirm, Klarna, AfterPay, and FuturePay have impinged on PayPal’s dominance in the space.Ī study from Cornerstone Advisors estimated that PayPal still had 36% market share of the US BNPL market in 2020, but that the four competitors above captured 46% of the market.Īn unpublished projection from Cornerstone estimates that BNPL-related retail purchases in the US will grow from roughly $24 billion in 2020 to roughly $100 billion in 2021. Strong interest in these features-and the addition of true checking account capabilities built in to Google Pay-will drive adoption and use over the next few years, likely at the expense of PayPal and even Apple Pay. Interest in new Google Pay features Source: Cornerstone Advisors
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